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Date & Time
November 29, 2023; 10h00 - 11h00 CET
- Estelle Payan, Enerdata
- Bruno Lapillonne, Enerdata
The EU has an ambitious transition goal for the transport sector. This webinar will analyse the state of this transition and look at how fast changes are taking place in terms of energy consumption and improvements in energy efficiency. It will show the main drivers of growth in energy demand in transport and quantify energy savings. This webinar will in particular analyse energy efficiency trends in the EU since 2010 and the impact of COVID-19 in 2020.
- Since 2013 transport consumption stayed stable in the 6 large countries (Germany, France, Sweden, Italy, Denmark and Belgium) and rapidly decreased in 4 countries (Luxembourg, Netherlands, Finland, Austria). Consumption increased less rapidly than GDP in 8 countries (as in the EU) and grew as GDP in 5 countries. In 4 countries, consumption growth was much faster than GDP.
- Transport consumption by mode in the EU: Cars absorb around half of transport energy consumption, followed by trucks and LDV which absorb a third. Domestic air and rail account for around 2% of the consumption each and water transport for 1.5%.
- The specific consumption of new thermal and electric cars has decreased rapidly (-5%/year at EU level over 2013-2022) with the greatest progress in Sweden (-10%/year), followed by Finland, The Netherlands and Denmark (-7%/year). The reduction in specific consumption has accelerated since 2020 with the rapid penetration of electric and hybrid cars: from 3% in 2019, to 22% in 2022 at EU level (12% BEV).
- Energy efficiency improvements for the car stock has been limited until 2019 and have deteriorated since then. This contrasts with the situation observed for new cars, which correspond to test values and do not include load factor effects.
- Energy efficiency trends in transport in the EU: The most important energy efficiency progress can be seen for trucks and light vehicles since 2012, after no progress between 2008 and 2012 following the financial crisis (less efficient operation of trucks with lower load and empty running).
- In two thirds of EU MS the share of rail and inland waterways is decreasing since 2000. The trend is in general slower since 2010 (only 2.7 points since 2010). Lithuania, Latvia, Romania and the Netherlands are the leading countries with a share reaching around 50% or more, due to good quality of rail lines to seaports combines with high maritime traffic.
- Consumption increased between 2000 and 2019 due to an increase of traffic, growing share of trucks in freight traffic and, to a lesser extent of cars in passenger traffic. Energy savings offset half of these effects. Source: decomposition tool (see link). It explains the variation of the energy consumption over a given period through a decomposition into various explanatory effects.
- Conclusion: Lower energy efficiency than expected
- Energy efficiency progress for cars has much deteriorated since 2019, mainly to behavioural factors (decreasing occupancy rate).
- Only very few countries have managed to raise the share of efficient modes of transport (public vs cars for passengers, or rail or water vs trucks).
- Transport lags behind the other sectors in terms of energy efficiency improvements.
- -2.5%/year decrease in final consumption required according to a scenario based on achieving the NDCs by 2030.
Last update: November 29, 2023